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CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.Swiss Re: It is estimated that the global real GDP growth rate will reach 2.7% in 2026. Swiss Re released the latest sigma report, and the world economy is expected to maintain steady growth in the next two years, but the downside risks will rise. It is estimated that the global real GDP growth rate will reach 2.8% and 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, which is basically the same as that in 2024.Chenglian Branch: In November, the retail sales of domestic narrow passenger car market reached 2.424 million, up 16.6% year-on-year. On December 10th, according to the latest retail sales statistics of china automobile dealers association Passenger Car Market Information Branch, the retail sales of domestic narrow passenger car market reached 2.424 million in November, up 16.6% year-on-year and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 20.258 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.

Foreign media: Hungarian Prime Minister Orban posted that he met with Trump and Musk at Haihu Manor. According to CNN and Russian Tass News Agency on the 9th, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban went to the United States at the invitation of President-elect Trump, and met with Trump at Haihu Manor in Florida. American billionaire Musk also attended the talks. According to the report, Orban posted on social media X on the 9th: "America today. The future has begun! One afternoon at Haihu Manor with Trump, Musk and Mike Valcz (appointed by Trump as US National Security Adviser-Editor's Note). " (World Wide Web)China's key mineral control is "stricter than expected". Regarding China's announcement last week to strengthen export control to the United States, The New York Times commented in a report on December 9 that it is "stricter than expected". The report claims that the most worrying thing is the extensive ban on transshipment. This clause extends export control to companies inside and outside China, and prohibits these companies from buying minerals in China and reselling them to American companies. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, points out that the new export control measures include several firsts-the first time that it explicitly targets the United States rather than other countries, and the first time that it directly responds to the restrictions imposed by the United States on its access to advanced technology. (Observer Network)Hong Kong auto stocks opened higher, with Weilai Auto (09866.HK) up 6.7%, Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) up 6.2% and LI (02015.HK) up 3.4%.

Google has developed a "quantum chip" with super computing power. On the 9th, Google announced that it has developed a chip with super computing power, which is suitable for quantum computers. It claims that this chip can complete the task that the existing fastest computer takes 10 years (10 to the 25th power) in just 5 minutes. On the same day, Google posted a message on the website saying that in addition to high-speed computing power, this chip named "Willow" also has outstanding error correction ability, paving the way for the development of "practical large-scale quantum computers".Pacific Securities: The historical low of the valuation office of liquor industry is about to be repaired. The Pacific Securities Research Report pointed out that the liquor industry is rationally slowing down, and the valuation office is at a historical low, and it is about to be repaired. Next year, the leading growth target will generally drop to single digits. However, the accumulated inventory risk and pricing pressure still need time to gradually ease after the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified in the past two years and the previous industry bubble has receded. With the economic recovery stimulated by this round of policies and the stabilization of the bottom of the real estate industry, the liquor industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery. Since 2023, industry differentiation has intensified, but with the improvement of management level and refined channel operation in recent years, excellent wine enterprises have stronger marketing foundation and anti-risk ability compared with previous downward cycles. The price of high-end wine determines the brand position, so the approval price is more important, which depends on the choice of quantity and price and the control of approval price by wine enterprises. Sub-high-end needs to pay more attention to channel risks. The high growth brought by pre-distribution investment needs to be tested in the downward period, and once the channel collapses and stalls, it is difficult to reverse it. Real estate wine pays attention to the growth momentum of internal product structure and the market potential in and around the province. The upgrading speed determines the slope and the ceiling determines the space. Suggested attention: Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Shuijingfang, etc.Tianjin released the Catalogue of Talents Demand for New Quality Productivity in Manufacturing Industry, and Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security recently released the Catalogue of Talents Demand for New Quality Productivity in Manufacturing Industry in Tianjin, identifying 198 jobs with strong correlation with 12 industrial chains in Tianjin, high level of talents demand and large market demand. The relevant person in charge of the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security said that the catalogue is supported by the dynamic demand data of talent markets of more than 2,900 key enterprises in the industrial chain, and the positions are sorted and classified through big data technology to reveal the inherent laws and trends of talent demand in Tianjin. At the same time, guided by the actual needs of employers, the relevant responsible persons and industry experts of 77 key enterprises in 12 industrial chains were invited to conduct in-depth exchanges and interviews, and the relevant job descriptions and job requirements were further verified and revised to ensure that the catalogue strictly and objectively reflected the market demand and provided effective reference and guidance for employers and job seekers.